Article Source: 36KR
Return to the essence of supply and demand
In 2018, the real estate market faces a huge challenge like the automobile industry -incremental and top -up, and we must rely on innovation to break the situation. Under severe deleveraging and regulatory policies, coupled with the problem of asset bubbles, real estate transactions are cold, which indirectly affects upstream and downstream industries.
However, just like the future of the automotive industry is travel, people’s demand for living itself has not weakened. On the contrary, the new generation of consumer groups have spawned the consumption upgrade of the accommodation industry. The current market lacks quality and personalized accommodation products, allowing huge opportunities to reveal.
This year, we see that from residence to office, from long -term rent to short -term rental, the scene under the eaves is staggered, and the boundaries of the physical space are gradually blurred.
Long -term rental market
1. Long -term rental apartment on the cusp
For the leasing market, 2018 is a unable to calm a year. On the one hand, the state encourages the rent and sale, and has introduced a number of policies to promote the development of the rental market. On the other hand, the new forces of the industry have continuously rented apartments, and negative events such as thunder, rental loans, and formaldehyde can be quickly cooled down. Come down.
Long -term rental apartments are well known for standardized products and housekeeper services, which has attracted a large number of players to enter in recent years. The “58 Group 2018 Housing Rental Market Report” shows that as of March 2018, there are more than 1,200 long -term rental apartment brands across the country. However, the apartment side only rely on the poor rental profits, and its imagination lies in scale. The competition is constantly fierce, and the apartments have gradually regarded rental as an important means of expansion.
The model of rental loan refers to the lending of the tenant to a third -party financial institution or bank with personal credit. The institution will use the one -year rent to the apartment, and the tenant can pay the monthly rent. It’s equivalent to repaying loans.
After the closure of many apartments, the rental loan was stopped, and the small and medium -sized apartments lost their limited financing methods, and it was more difficult to maintain operation. Liu Xiang, the founder of Youke Yijia, judged that the apartment party must rely on new funds to make scale, which will further separate people, houses, and money in the industry.
For the apartment party, although the income level in the hosting model has declined, the net profit is not necessarily low, and it can get rid of the pressure of the long -loan long -term investment in the past; in the housing side, in addition to the individual owner, there are still in the past two years. Developers and state -owned housing rental companies do not have professional management and operation capabilities, and they are also very important suppliers.
At the level of funding, the past active equity investment institutions are now more inclined to medium and late projects. Most of the regional head players who have obtained high financing in 2018 are regional head players. However, the state still encourages the funds of banks and insurance industries to enter the leasing market. The market has also appeared in the long -term rental apartment investment platform jointly established by many real estate and funds. In addition, there are long -term rental apartment asset securitization products, including rental income ABS model and REITS model.
Zhang Aihua, CEO of Xuhui Lingu, believes that long -term rental apartments are asset and resource -dense industries. Regardless of the severity development, financial instruments need to be used. Asset securitization is a good medicine to solve the capital operation level of long -term rental apartments. However, whether the asset securitization can help the development depends on the company’s own financial operation capabilities and the space operation service capabilities that live in the entrance.
However, it is foreseeable that before the formation of new industry rules, the industry’s reshuffle will continue. Incidents of the closure of small and medium apartments will also occur, and market resources will be more focused on head companies, and industry integrations are expected to appear.
2. Rental platform competition upgrade
For traffic platforms, the biggest disruption this year is shells looking for houses. Relying on the resources and advantages accumulated by the chain home for many years, coupled with the heavy investment advertisement, the shell to find a house to quickly run out to become a player who cannot be underestimated, but at the same time, it is also facing the problem of whether the high -cost customer acquisition model is sustainable.
From the current point of view, 58 still occupies half of the rivers and mountains. This year, large -flow platforms such as Jingdong and Meituan have entered the rental market, and Haier hatched the sea.
Chain rental house
Lily Jiayuan hatched the lease interest, and the large and small startups cut in from the perspective of their respective segmentation.
China’s rental market is huge, and it should be a pattern of coexistence in multiple models in the future. Housing leasing has a trillion -scale scale, and the horizontal vertical and vertical directions are strong. At the same time, the industry is highly scattered, and the user pain points are obvious. Coupled with policy promotion, there is huge opportunities in this industry and will continue to attract players to enter the game.
Short -term rental market
1. Supply is still the biggest proposition
As another representative of the real estate transformation model, the development of urban homestays in 2018 is still hot. Policies are encouraged to rent and sell together to allow idle housing to generate operating value. Compared with long rent, short -term rental is a form of higher economic value. On the other hand, the offline experience has changed, and consumption upgrades have spawned the hotness of non -standard accommodation.
The advantage of urban homestays lies in personalized experience, which can meet multiple people’s travel scenes. Compared with hotels at the same price, they have a higher cost -effectiveness. However, the proportion of urban homestays in the entire accommodation market at present is very small. The biggest problem facing the industry is that the high -quality supply and demand are not matching.
Throughout the domestic supply market, the stable and high-quality short-term rental houses are only 200-3 million units. The proportion of shared houses in Europe and the United States is targeted in Europe and the United States. The domestic development potential is still great.
2. City boutique homestays in the hosting mode are sought after
In the case of lack of high -quality supply, a number of urban boutique homestay brands that cut into the industry with a hosting model have been born, such as passers -by to quickly completing two rounds of 100 million financing at the beginning of this year, the city’s cities, Ctrip, and Tujia Investment of Airbnb strategic investment. There are home homestays, elephant homestays, etc.
In the past six months, the business volume of Cheng Su has increased 5 times. Tan Shenghu, the founder of Cheng Su, said that 2017-2019 is the quality and norm of shared accommodation. There are hundreds of players who enter the market in the form of hosting the market, but there are not many houses in more than a thousand. He judged that after one and a half years, the brand structure of the supply side will be basically formed, and head brands will make moderate integration.
Interestingly, it is also standardized and branded for accommodation products, but long -term rental apartments have gone through the development of leases to hosting, and the homestay has developed rapidly in the form of hosting as the mainstream. The above discussion was that due to the industry bubble, the owners of the long -term rental apartment were satisfied with high -priced chartered rent, and the apartment party could not take care of the scale in order to compete for the scale, nor to the landlords, investors, and stable investment returns.
Su Tongmin was the senior vice president of Pedestrian Group and president of the simple life business group before creating a pavilion. The 7 -day CEO of the hotel business department. He believes that compared with the franchise model, the direct business model is easier to make scale, and the difficulty of operation is relatively low. However, it is easy to lead to the decline in internal service levels and insufficient product competitiveness. The 7 -day hotel franchise store is better than that of direct -operated stores. The franchise model requires higher. Franchisees often force operators to make internal investment, and must improve operating efficiency to ensure profitability, which is more conducive to the company’s healthy development.
Zhang Shijie, the founder of Elephant Homestay, believes that, in addition to the lack of quantity, the greater problem in the industry is the lack of product, service and operation standards. result in negative effect. At present, the number of hostels in elephants is more than 3,000. Practicing products and enhanced service experience is the most important task he thinks.
3. Break the long -term rental boundary
Long -term rental combination is another trend of the industry. The city’s apartment is one of the earliest brands of short -term rental in practice. They call them “STAY” in the needs of Night (overnight) and Live (life). On the one hand It has also launched the short -term rental business “city selection apartment”; more important and more difficult to achieve is to break the boundaries of accommodation, the same listing is presented as different product states at different times. Long rental land is used for short -term rental and increases the check -in rate.
As a non -standardized product, long -term rental apartments have greatly increased the difficulty of operating management after the combination of shorts. This is not only the issue of rental time, but also a complete set of systems including products, personnel, evaluation, finance and other management. Essence
If long -term rental products want to make short -term rental, it is necessary to rent a mid -to -high -end house, and the difficulty of making growth for short -term rental products is relatively low. This year Passeng has opened up a new business line for foreign executives of second- and third -tier cities. These executives have a long -term staying needs. Compared with hotels, homestays have a more home atmosphere. You can wash and make friends, and there is a party. Against the housekeeper service.
The combination of long and short -term rental may be more common in the future, but from the perspective of the industry, the polishing of long -term or short -term players in their respective fields is still their most important topic.
1. Develop to “olive shape”
Since 2015, the theme of the hotel industry has been revolving around the upgrade of low -end hotels, and this year is no exception.
Hotel group OYO from India is the most striking player in 2018. In November 2017, OYO entered the Chinese market, integrated small -scale single hotels in low -line cities, provided brands and made light transformations. It took only a year to cover 269 cities across the country and expand more than 3,500 hotels and 175,000 rooms. In September this year, it received $ 600 million in financing led by SoftBank Vision Fund.
In fact, this model has been practiced in China. In 2016, Shangmei Life released the Aaroom plan to transform and upgrade the stock hotels in third- and fourth -tier cities to form a new Internet chain hotel platform through franchise; Qianyu, established in 2017 Islands has also completed multiple rounds of financing.
At present, China ’s low -end hotels account for more than 70%, less than 20%of the middle end, and the corresponding demand is more than 50%. The Chinese hotel market will usher in the era of” olive shape “. However, the difficulty is also obvious. The too light mode does not create value for the hotel. The key is to further operate the quality of control and truly improve its profitability.
2. Seeking brand differentiation
The same overall transformation of economy hotels, as well as the drama and shell snails cut in from the movie IP. They transformed mid -to -low -end hotels into movie -themed hotels, and used private theaters to rent in private theaters to improve room utilization.
Xinghan Capital Jingting believes that the transformation and upgrading of the decoration level, service level, and brand level involves the essence of brand differentiation and clearly positioning the positioning of the segmented population. Whether it is movie IP or other angles, it is different forms of the same nature.
In addition, it is worth noting that Alibaba’s 30 -month smart hotel “Philippines and Fat Thirst” officially opened at the end of the year. Face recognition, voice butler, robot, smart APP, hotel management system located in the cloud, and after the running model, this set of solutions full of black technology and futuristic will be exported to the hotel industry. The era of smart hotels may come soon.
Real estate trading market
1. New Housing Market: Not that bad
In the context of the big economic environment and policies, in 2018, everyone generally perceives that second -hand real estate transactions are cold, but the situation of new houses may be better. In some places, there are even one -handed price upside down, and cheap houses are usually difficult to obtain.
According to the data provided by the new house of Juli, the new house transaction in 2018 has indeed decreased compared to the past three or four years, but it has enlarged the time cycle to 2008-2018. The situation is not bad, and the monthly trend is steadily improved.
After the development of urbanization in China, it is entering the 2.0 stage of urbanization, namely urbanization, and the population of third- and fourth -tier cities will enter first -tier cities or strong second -tier cities. The supply of these cities will be relatively limited, and there is still much room for rise in the new housing market.
2. New opportunities for second -hand housing tracks
Look at the second -hand housing market. The proportion of second -hand housing transactions in China has increased year by year, and the report of CICC Securities shows that by 2020, the proportion of national stock housing transactions will increase to 70%. Under the new trend, the role of “second -hand housing developers” was born, such as warming, conch home, and selling houses in seconds.
In the field of real estate information, on the one hand, Ping An Good House was renamed Ping An City, which stopped the related business of house trading and transformed into a cloud platform supplier; Finding a house is equally powerful. However, the model of the shell is not completely open. The listing information on the platform comes from the small and medium -sized brokerage companies that are joined. They are facing the same issues as the rental field, and questioning the referee and athletes.
For the real estate information platform, the core is what resources can be provided for housing, guest, and agent. The test is actually the ability to transform traffic and clues. The traffic can be reused. The real estate transaction is the entrance, extending to decoration, home, and finance, which is the imagination of this business.
Home improvement market
1. In the cold winter, the trend is upward
In 2018 in the home improvement industry, the keywords seem to be the cold winter of capital, as well as the downward of the real estate market, the closure of decoration companies, and the way running. Just last week, Tuba Rabbit was exposed to revoke an IPO application. The cumulative loss of 2.42 billion yuan in three years has been established in three years.
The home improvement industry is indeed at the inflection point of integration, but the actual situation is not as bad as we think, and failure is not a unique phenomenon this year-according to incomplete statistics, 200 companies in the home installation industry have received financing from 2015-2017, but As of April this year, in just 3 years, the home furnishing industry has closed down hundreds of companies, and most of them have been blessing in the capital market.
In 2018, from the beginning of Ali and other institutions of 13 billion yuan in strategic investment, the Internet giants have hardly missed the home improvement market: JD.com and Oshennas have reached a strategic cooperation to accelerate the layout of home improvement and building materials. Strategic cooperation, this year’s business scale will reach 10 billion yuan. Tencent reached a strategic cooperation with Red Star Macron in the home field and launched the IMP global home smart marketing platform.
From the perspective of specific financing data, a total of 43 financing in the home improvement industry this year, the total amount of financing is nearly 20 billion yuan, and there are also 1.2 billion yuan of A round of financing and the 1 billion yuan round B financing. Star project. Although the amount of financing is slightly lower than the O2O war that swept the home improvement industry in 2015, the total financing volume is greater than the total of the first five years, and the data may be involved, but it can also reflect the overall trend.
2. The presence
The reason why the bone of the home improvement industry is difficult is that the delivery cycle is long, the process is large, the interests of the interests are diverse, and the home improvement is low -frequency demand. Traditional decoration companies do not pay attention to word of mouth accumulation. The biggest pain point. The integration of the entire process of designing, construction, and product decoration is regarded as a good recipe for improving delivery efficiency and quality by the industry.
The ideal rectification refers to “from hair embryo to bags to live”, including the infrastructure of hydropower mud and wood oil, customized furniture, finished furniture, and soft decoration of the cabinet doors and windows. Due to the ability to deliver, although most decoration companies have overlapped to varying degrees in four links, they still focus on overall solutions that are biased to hard or soft.
The whole installation is not a trend that has only risen this year. Regarding the progress of this year, in general, it can be said that the business content is becoming more and more “soft”, the degree of standardization and delivery efficiency and quality requirements of the business content. The changes of younger and consumer behavior, high customer acquisition costs and transformation pressure.
At present, the mainstream mode of reorganization services on the market can be divided into two categories:
The first is self -operated brand, such as U Family Workshop. The U home workshop is one of the few installed companies that have achieved hair embryos to check -in. Self -employment can indeed ensure the quality of delivery and user experience;
The second is channel brand. If self -operated brands are more likely to run the model but it is difficult to achieve scale, the platform -type channel brand is undoubtedly the best choice for rapid and large -scale, but Tuba Rabbit and Qijia.com seem to be warning entrepreneurs if it cannot be achieved if it cannot be achieved. The benefits of each role in the industrial chain cannot be reasonably distributed, and even the huge traffic cannot be transformed even if the huge traffic converge.
In order to achieve high -efficiency delivery, players in the industry have spent a lot of time studying the standardization of process and construction process -prefabricated decoration is the ultimate form of process standardization and construction process. Big data technology, VR/AR technology to improve efficiency, and the specific form of design has a fool -style design software (“Meijia Xiuxiu” selected by the house, “Xiaojia” of Sanya Technology, etc.), VR /AR display device, BIM information system (such as dressed home).
The maturity of price factors and solutions is affecting the popularity of smart decoration and the enthusiasm of home improvement entrepreneurs. Most of the investment institutions in the field of smart home are considering long -term layout.
The home improvement industry in 2018 is not as “cold” as expected. New models and new technologies are trying and landing. Regardless of whether there is a new model or new gimmick, home improvement must always return to the word “delivery”, because essentially, home improvement is a complex for the service industry and retail industry.
Joint office market
1. Matthew effect intensify
In 2018, China’s joint office ushered in the acceleration period of financing and integration. The scale of head brand financing expanded rapidly, and the integration of the industry continued to speed up. The Matthew effect of the industry is more obvious. Resources and funds are gathered at head players, and small players have gradually withdrawn from the market.
The originator of the joint office industry “WeWork China” merged the naked heart club to locate the mid-to-high-end market in April, and successively completed $ 500 million in financing; 氪 Space has completed the 600 million yuan Pre-B round of financing this year, and the dream plus has been completed. 300 million yuan B financing and $ 120 million round C financing.
The Youke Workshop was frequent this year. In January, Hongtai Innovation Space was acquired, and then merged the unbounded space, Wedo Joint Entrepreneurship, WorkingDom, etc.; Financing and 200 million US dollars D financing were established, and a shared office real estate fund was established.
The small -scale players of the basement, the peacock mechanism, and the MySpace have fallen down due to the blind expansion and poor profitability.
Even so, the concepts, models and standards of the joint office industry have not yet been uniformly defined. The business models adopted by head players are different. Even under the same brand, the design and style of different office spaces are different.
The joint office industry still has a lot of room for rise, but the industry faces a most realistic question, that is, how to operate a stable profit model.
2. Intelligent office and refined service
Office intelligence was mentioned more. At first, the joint office industry generally used APP, applets, and office software to uniformly manage the membership and office authority, and then gradually adopted the concept of “unmanned duty”. Face recognition and other technologies.
In terms of trend, intelligence may further deepen from the software level to the hardware level. For example, the OaaS (Office As a Service), which has acquired an intelligent office platform Rockets in September this year. In the future work scenarios, tables, chairs and projection equipment may be redefined on a physical level.
The refined service may be an industry consensus. At present, whether it is a direct -operated or hybrid mode, the profit method of joint office space on the market is mainly rents, and the value -added services are still exploring. When the enterprise settled in, the main considerations were locations and cost -effectiveness, and the cost -effectiveness fell in accordance with the refined service, becoming the key to attract customers in a similar area and price range.
The first is the resource synergy. In terms of resources provided by the enterprises, it will basically allocate third -party enterprise services such as human resources, accounting, welfare internal purchase, investment and financing docking. At the level of community construction, joint office space has also launched activities such as group building and corporate cooperation.
Secondly, office intelligence is also reflected here. No one is on duty to reduce single -store operators, reduce operating costs while improving service capabilities. In terms of space design, how to better use the space, how to coordinate the location of the hall, station, and conference rooms, and how to improve the efficiency of single shops will also become an important part of the refined service.
3. The scale continues to grow, and the proportion of rental rent is increased
From the perspective of potential customers, data from the State Administration of Market Supervision shows that in the first three quarters of 2018, there were 15.616 million new market entities, a year -on -year increase of 10.4%, of which 5.12 million new enterprises were set up, an increase of 11.1%.
According to enterprise business card data, a total of 1,0147 investment and financing incidents in 2018 decreased by 24.25%month -on -month. The total financing amount was 2585.464 billion yuan, an increase of 28.37%month -on -month. In the winter period, the characteristics of small and micro -early founding enterprises and weak payment capabilities will be amplified. In comparison, large Internet companies and traditional enterprises with full rent capacity are welcomed by joint office space.
According to the research data from the consulting company, Salvin shows that by 2020, the joint office will gradually develop from 70%of SME customers and 30%of large enterprise customers to 50%of large enterprise customers and 50%of small and medium -sized enterprises. The same trend has also occurred in the domestic market, such as today’s headlines settled in 氪 Space, Ping ++ settled in Nash Space, COFCO’s dream plus. Several joint office practitioners told 36 氪 that traditional enterprises and large Internet companies have increased their acceptance of joint offices.
In addition, social and communities may be an important development direction. When there are enough people to connect, there will be more imagination. In terms of valuation model, the number of members is an important consideration standard, but how to achieve the commercial value of social and community operations still needs to be considered.
However, the margins of joint office and traditional commercial real estate are gradually blurred, and real estate developers will directly end. Unique community culture may be one of the core barriers of joint office spaces.
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